Macroeconomic Patterns and Stories : A Guide for MBAs by Edward Leamer *NEW*

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Item specifics

Condition
Brand New: A new, unread, unused book in perfect condition with no missing or damaged pages. See all condition definitionsopens in a new window or tab
Pages
360
Publication Date
2008-11-19
Book Title
Macroeconomic Patterns and Stories
Personalized
No
ISBN
9783540463887
Category

About this product

Product Identifiers

Publisher
Springer Berlin / Heidelberg
ISBN-10
3540463887
ISBN-13
9783540463887
eBay Product ID (ePID)
57258181

Product Key Features

Number of Pages
Xvi, 360 Pages
Publication Name
Macroeconomic Patterns and Stories
Language
English
Publication Year
2008
Subject
Economics / Macroeconomics, Econometrics, Money & Monetary Policy
Type
Textbook
Subject Area
Business & Economics
Author
Edward E. Leamer
Format
Hardcover

Dimensions

Item Weight
54.7 Oz
Item Length
9.3 in
Item Width
6.1 in

Additional Product Features

Intended Audience
Scholarly & Professional
LCCN
2008-933370
Dewey Edition
22
Number of Volumes
1 vol.
Illustrated
Yes
Dewey Decimal
339
Table Of Content
Introduction: We Are Pattern-Seeking, Story-Telling Animals.- Four Key Variables: Growth, Unemployment, Inflation and Interest Rates.- Gross Domestic Product.- The Components of GDP: C+I+G+X?M.- Employment.- Inflation and Interest Rates.- Extrapolative Forecasting.- A Recession Symptoms.- Unwanted Idleness: Recessions and Recoveries.- Recession Comparison Charts.- Who Struggles and Who Does Well in Recessions'.- B Recession Stories.- Idleness Stories.- Cycle Stories.- C Recession Early Warning Signs.- Clues: Temporal Ordering of Components of GDP.- More Clues: Episodic Forecasting with Components of Conference Board's Index of Leading Indicators.- D Recession Causes.- The Art of Drawing Causal Inferences from Nonexperimental Data.- In Search of Recession Causes.- Expansions: With and Without Spurts.- The Life Cycle of US Expansions: Sputters and Spurts.- The Longer Run: Savings, Investment, Government Borrowing, Foreign Lending and Your Home.- Savings and Investment.- Government.- The External Deficit and the Value of the Dollar Hu's in Charge'.- The Ups and Downs of Real Estate Values: Can You Rely on Your Home To Pay For Your Retirement'.
Synopsis
This book offers the wisdom and insight regarding the US economy from a well-known and distinguished econometrician who found himself first teaching macro economics to MBAs and then directing the highly regarded and widely quoted UCLA/Anderson Forecast, which provides quarterly forecasts for the US economy. Edward Leamer argues that, "We are pattern-seeking story-telling animals." He provides in this book the patterns and stories that are the basis for his understanding of what determines the business cycle and what determines long-run economic growth., The story of this book began with my dif'cult transition from teaching international economics and econometrics in Economics Ph. D. programs at Harvard and UCLA to teaching in the MBA programs at the Anderson School at UCLA. On the basis of 20 years of apparent teaching success in Ph. D. education, I arrived at the Anderson School in 1990 with a self-image as a star teacher, but I was greeted with highly disturbingmediocreteachingevaluations. Facedwithadatasetthatwasinconsistent with my view of reality, I did what analysts usually do - I formulated a theory why the data were misleading. Here is how I thought about it. Two aspects of the course - content and amu- ment - drive numerical course evaluations. If you rank courses by the average of the content score and the amusement score, then the component that can be measured most accurately will determine the ranking. Do you understand why? It is what - eraging does: it eliminates the noise. Suppose, for example, that a student cannot tell anything about the content, and the content score is simply a random number, varying from student to student. Those random numbers will average out across students to about the same number for each course. As the average course content score is about the same for every course, it is the amusement score that will drive the rankings., Seasoned US economist Edward Leamer argues here that "We are pattern-seeking story-telling animals." He provides in this book the patterns that are the basis for his understanding of what drives the business cycle and what determines long-run economic growth.
LC Classification Number
HB172.5

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