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Apocalypse When? : Calculating How Long the Human Race...
US $8.55
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Condition:
Like New
A book in excellent condition. Cover is shiny and undamaged, and the dust jacket is included for hard covers. No missing or damaged pages, no creases or tears, and no underlining/highlighting of text or writing in the margins. May be very minimal identifying marks on the inside cover. Very minimal wear and tear.
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Free local pickup from Pisgah Forest, North Carolina, United States.
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US $5.22 (approx RM 22.07) USPS Media MailTM.
Located in: Pisgah Forest, North Carolina, United States
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Estimated between Wed, 13 Aug and Tue, 19 Aug to 94104
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eBay item number:266687208481
Item specifics
- Condition
- ISBN
- 9780387098364
About this product
Product Identifiers
Publisher
Springer New York
ISBN-10
0387098364
ISBN-13
9780387098364
eBay Product ID (ePID)
69706965
Product Key Features
Number of Pages
Xxviii, 212 Pages
Publication Name
Apocalypse When? : Calculating How Long the Human Race Will Survive
Language
English
Publication Year
2009
Subject
Environmental Science (See Also Chemistry / Environmental), Physics / Astrophysics, Ecology, Statistics, Astronomy
Type
Textbook
Subject Area
Nature, Social Science, Science
Series
Springer Praxis Bks.
Format
Trade Paperback
Dimensions
Item Weight
16 Oz
Item Length
9.3 in
Item Width
6.1 in
Additional Product Features
Intended Audience
Scholarly & Professional
Reviews
From the reviews: "After introducing the reader to key ideas in probability and statistics, Wells starts to develop ideas of probability based first on random-hazard rates ... and then ideas based on our own history of survival as a species, and as a civilization. ... the book reasonably accessible to the general reader ... . The book is well organized, and is written in an easy style ... ." (Robert Connon Smith, The Observatory, Vol. 131 (1222), June, 2011), From the reviews:After introducing the reader to key ideas in probability and statistics, Wells starts to develop ideas of probability based first on random-hazard rates … and then ideas based on our own history of survival as a species, and as a civilization. … the book reasonably accessible to the general reader … . The book is well organized, and is written in an easy style … . (Robert Connon Smith, The Observatory, Vol. 131 (1222), June, 2011)
Number of Volumes
1 vol.
Illustrated
Yes
Synopsis
This book will be a key trailblazer in a new and upcoming field. The author's predictive approach relies on simple and intuitive probability formulations that will appeal to readers with a modest knowledge of astronomy, mathematics, and statistics. Wells' carefully erected theory stands on a sure footing and thus should serve as the basis of many rational predictions of survival in the face of not only natural disasters such as hits by asteroids or comets, but perhaps more surprisingly from man-made hazards arising from genetic engineering or robotics. Any formula for predicting human survival will invite controversy. Dr Wells counters anticipated criticism with a thorough approach in which four lines of reasoning are used to arrive at the same survival formula. One uses empirical survival statistics for business firms and stage shows. Another is based on uncertainty of risk rates. The third, more abstract, invokes Laplace's principle of insufficient reason and involves an observer's random arrival in the lifetime of the entity (the human race) in question. The fourth uses Bayesian theory. The author carefully explains and gives examples of the conditions under which his principle is valid and provides evidence that can counteract the arguments of critics who would reject it entirely. His deflection of possible criticisms results from two major premises: selecting the proper random variable and "reference class" to make predictions, and the recognition that if one does not know the law that governs a process, then the best prediction that can be made is his own formula., This book will be a key trailblazer in a new and upcoming field. The author's predictive approach relies on simple and intuitive probability formulations that will appeal to readers with a modest knowledge of astronomy, mathematics, and statistics. Wells' carefully erected theory stands on a sure footing and thus should serve as the basis of many rational predictions of survival in the face of natural disasters such as hits by asteroids or comets in the coming years. Any formula for predicting human survival will invite controversy. Dr Wells counters anticipated criticism with a thorough approach in which four lines of reasoning are used to arrive at the same survival formula. One uses empirical survival statistics for business firms and stage shows. Another is based on uncertainty of risk rates. The third, more abstract, invokes Laplace's principle of insufficient reason and involves an observer's random arrival in the lifetime of the entity (the human race) in question. The fourth uses Bayesian theory. The author carefully explains and gives examples of the conditions under which his principle is valid and provides evidence that can counteract the arguments of critics who would reject it entirely. His deflection of possible criticisms results from two major premises: selecting the proper random variable and "reference class" to make predictions, and the recognition that if one does not know the law that governs a process, then the best prediction that can be made is his own formula., Any formula for predicting human survival will invite controversy. This book provides a unique analysis of the chances of human survivability in the short and long term. It develops a formula for survival based on four separate measures.
LC Classification Number
QB1-991
Item description from the seller
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- d***0 (235)- Feedback left by buyer.Past monthVerified purchaseExcellent service, thank you
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Seller feedback (1,794)
- d***0 (235)- Feedback left by buyer.Past monthVerified purchaseExcellent service, thank you
- r***o (337)- Feedback left by buyer.Past monthVerified purchaseEverything was fine, thanks
- e***z (1336)- Feedback left by buyer.Past monthVerified purchaseNice price. Arrived quickly and in great condition.